Race Ratings
The Decision Labs rating is our own competitiveness call for every 2026 U.S. Senate and Governor race, computed live from fundamentals and our polling average. Third-party ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections are shown for comparison and credited to their sources.
Assembled 2026-06-11
Third-party ratings as of 2026-06-08 · via Wikipedia (CC BY-SA)
How we rate
- In plain English: Safe means a race is not expected to be close; Likely means one party has a clear advantage but an upset is conceivable; Lean means a competitive race where one side holds a modest edge; and Toss-Up means no clear leader. Ratings describe each race's current standing based on the evidence today — they are not predictions of the outcome.
- Our rating measures competitiveness (Safe / Likely / Lean for each party, plus Toss-Up) — it is not a win probability or a vote-share forecast.
- It is derived transparently from a blend of fundamentals (recent presidential lean, prior same-office result, incumbency) and our weighted polling average. See the rating methodology for the exact formula and constants.
- A fundamentals only tag marks races with sparse or no polling, where the rating leans on fundamentals.
- Third-party raters are independent organizations shown for comparison; their ratings are not Decision Labs predictions or endorsements.
Safe D10Likely D9Lean D2Toss-Up15Lean R1Likely R9Safe R23
| Race | Decision Labs | Cook Political Report | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Inside Elections |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our competitiveness rating | Third-party ratings · as of 2026-06-08 · via Wikipedia (CC BY-SA) | |||
| Arizona Governor | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Toss-Up | Lean D | Toss-Up |
| Georgia Governor | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| Georgia Senate | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Lean D | Lean D | Toss-Up |
| Kansas Governor | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Lean R | Lean R | Toss-Up |
| Maine Senate | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| Michigan Governor | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Lean D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up |
| Michigan Senate | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up |
| Minnesota Governor | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| Minnesota Senate | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Nevada Governor | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Lean R | Lean R |
| New Hampshire Governor | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R |
| New Hampshire Senate | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| New Mexico Governor | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| North Carolina Senate | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Lean D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up |
| Wisconsin Governor | Toss-Upfundamentals only | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up |
| Maine Governor | Lean Dfundamentals only | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Oregon Governor | Lean Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Montana Senate | Lean Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Colorado Governor | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Colorado Senate | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Connecticut Governor | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Illinois Senate | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| New Jersey Senate | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| New Mexico Senate | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| New York Governor | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Virginia Senate | Likely Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Alaska Senate | Likely Rfundamentals only | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R |
| Florida Governor | Likely Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Iowa Governor | Likely Rfundamentals only | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Lean R |
| Iowa Senate | Likely Rfundamentals only | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Nebraska Senate | Likely Rfundamentals only | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| South Carolina Governor | Likely Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Texas Governor | Likely Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Texas Senate | Likely Rfundamentals only | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Vermont Governor | Likely Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| California Governor | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Delaware Senate | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Hawaii Governor | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Illinois Governor | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Maryland Governor | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Massachusetts Governor | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Massachusetts Senate | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Oregon Senate | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Rhode Island Governor | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Rhode Island Senate | Safe Dfundamentals only | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Alabama Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Alabama Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Alaska Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Arkansas Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Arkansas Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Idaho Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Idaho Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Kansas Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Kentucky Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Louisiana Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Mississippi Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Nebraska Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Ohio Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Oklahoma Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Oklahoma Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| South Carolina Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R |
| South Dakota Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| South Dakota Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Tennessee Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Tennessee Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| West Virginia Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Wyoming Governor | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Wyoming Senate | Safe Rfundamentals only | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
- Arizona GovernorToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Toss-Up
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean D
- Inside Elections
- Toss-Up
- Georgia GovernorToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Toss-Up
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Toss-Up
- Inside Elections
- Lean R
- Georgia SenateToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean D
- Inside Elections
- Toss-Up
- Kansas GovernorToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean R
- Inside Elections
- Toss-Up
- Maine SenateToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Toss-Up
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Toss-Up
- Inside Elections
- Lean R
- Michigan GovernorToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Toss-Up
- Inside Elections
- Toss-Up
- Michigan SenateToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Toss-Up
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Toss-Up
- Inside Elections
- Toss-Up
- Minnesota GovernorToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Likely D
- Minnesota SenateToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Likely D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Likely D
- Inside Elections
- Likely D
- Nevada GovernorToss-Up
- Cook Political Report
- Toss-Up
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean R
- Inside Elections
- Lean R
- New Hampshire GovernorToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Likely R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Likely R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- New Hampshire SenateToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean D
- Inside Elections
- Lean D
- New Mexico GovernorToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Likely D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Likely D
- Inside Elections
- Likely D
- North Carolina SenateToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Toss-Up
- Inside Elections
- Toss-Up
- Wisconsin GovernorToss-Up
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Toss-Up
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Toss-Up
- Inside Elections
- Toss-Up
- Maine GovernorLean D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Likely D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean D
- Inside Elections
- Likely D
- Oregon GovernorLean D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Likely D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Montana SenateLean R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Likely R
- Inside Elections
- Likely R
- Colorado GovernorLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Colorado SenateLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Connecticut GovernorLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Illinois SenateLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- New Jersey SenateLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- New Mexico SenateLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- New York GovernorLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Likely D
- Pennsylvania GovernorLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Likely D
- Inside Elections
- Likely D
- Virginia SenateLikely D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Alaska SenateLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean R
- Inside Elections
- Lean R
- Florida GovernorLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Iowa GovernorLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Toss-Up
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Toss-Up
- Inside Elections
- Lean R
- Iowa SenateLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean R
- Inside Elections
- Likely R
- Nebraska SenateLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Likely R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Likely R
- Inside Elections
- Likely R
- South Carolina GovernorLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Texas GovernorLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Texas SenateLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean R
- Inside Elections
- Likely R
- Vermont GovernorLikely R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- California GovernorSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Delaware SenateSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Hawaii GovernorSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Illinois GovernorSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Maryland GovernorSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Massachusetts GovernorSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Massachusetts SenateSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Oregon SenateSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Rhode Island GovernorSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Rhode Island SenateSafe D
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe D
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe D
- Inside Elections
- Safe D
- Alabama GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Alabama SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Alaska GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Likely R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Likely R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Arkansas GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Arkansas SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Idaho GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Idaho SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Kansas SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Kentucky SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Louisiana SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Mississippi SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Nebraska GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Ohio GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Lean R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Lean R
- Inside Elections
- Likely R
- Oklahoma GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Oklahoma SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- South Carolina SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Likely R
- South Dakota GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- South Dakota SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Tennessee GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Tennessee SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- West Virginia SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Wyoming GovernorSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R
- Wyoming SenateSafe R
fundamentals only
- Cook Political Report
- Safe R
- Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Safe R
- Inside Elections
- Safe R